Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data

Using Consensus Economics survey data on JPY/USD and GBP/USD exchange rate expectations for the 3- and 12-month horizons over the period November 1989–December 2012, we first show that expectations fail the conventional tests of unbiasedness and do not exhibit a learning process towards rationality. Our approach is consistent with the economically rational expectations theory (Feige and Pearce, 1976), which states that information costs and agents’ aversion to misestimating future exchange rates determine the optimal amounts of information on which they base their expectations. The time variability of the cost/aversion ratios justifies at the aggregate level a representation of expectations as a linear combination of the traditional extrapolative, adaptive and regressive processes augmented by a forward market component, whose parameters are allowed to change over time. This mixed expectation model with unstable heterogeneity is validated by our Kalman filter estimation results for the two currencies and the two horizons considered. Although the relative importance of the ‘fundamentalists’ (‘chartists’) is found to increase (decrease) with the time-horizon, chartist behaviour appears to dominate fundamentalist behaviour for both horizons. Central bank intervention is then effective in stabilizing the foreign exchange markets if it encourages fundamentalist activity.     

Voluntary turnover rates and organizational performance in the US federal government: the moderating role of high-commitment human resource practices

Despite the growing body of literature on antecedents of employee turnover, little attention has been paid to the effect of voluntary turnover on organizational outcomes in public administration. Using panel data from the US federal government, this article tests the proposition that the relationship between voluntary turnover rates and organizational performance is negative but becomes curvilinear as turnover rates increase. Based on the contingency perspective of the turnover–performance link, this article further examines the moderating role of high-commitment human resource practices (HCHRP) in the relationships. Findings indicate that voluntary turnover has a positive relationship with organizational performance, but it turns out to be an inverted U-shaped curve as turnover rates increase from low to high levels. Furthermore, the moderating effect on the curvilinear relationship is especially pronounced for federal agencies with high levels of HCHRP.     

Out-of-sample forecasting of the Canadian unemployment rates using univariate models

This article investigates the out-of-sample forecasting performance of some linear and nonlinear univariate time series models on the monthly seasonally adjusted Canadian unemployment rates during the 1980–2013 period. The findings reveal that nonlinear time series models better capture the asymmetry present in the unemployment rate series at short and long forecast horizons.     

Modelling European sovereign bond yields with international portfolio effects

This paper proposes a portfolio choice model with two countries to evaluate the specific role of volatility and co-volatility risks in the formation of long-term European interest rates over the crisis and post-crisis periods with an active role of the European Central Bank. Long-term equilibrium rates depend crucially on the covariances between international bond yields anticipated by investors. Positively anticipated covariances amplify the phenomena of fundamental contagions related to the degradations of public finance and solvency of sovereign debt issuer, while negatively anticipated covariances amplify the phenomena of Flight-to-quality. The two-step econometric approach over the period January 2006 to September 2016 analyses 21 European market pairs in a bivariate GARCH framework. Empirical results show that the decline in German and French long-term rates from March 2011 is partially due to the decrease in both risk premium and covariances with periphery countries. These declines actually amplify the mechanisms of Flight-to-quality. Finally, a lower sensitivity of rate to volatility and co-volatility risks during the crisis period gives credit to the hypothesis of a occasional fragmentation of the European sovereign bond markets (De Santis and Stein, 2016, Ehrmann and Fratzscher, 2017).     

How competitiveness may cause a gender wage gap: Experimental evidence

We show that choices in competitive behavior may entail a gender wage gap. In our experiments, employees first choose a remuneration scheme (competitive tournament vs. piece rate) and then conduct a real-effort task. Employers know the pie size the employee has generated, the remuneration scheme chosen, and the employee׳s gender. Employers then decide how the pie will be split, as in a dictator game. Whereas employers do not discriminate by gender when tournaments are chosen, they take substantially and significantly more from female employees who choose piece-rate remuneration. A discriminatory wage gap occurs which cannot be attributed to employees׳ performance.     

Models of exchange rates : A comparison of forecasting results

In this note we compare the results of several published papers on exchange rate forecasting. With regard to univariate time series models, we confirm the result that such models, on average, do not outperform the simple random walk forecasting rule. This conclusion corrects results reported in this Journal by Alexander and Thomas (1987).     

Exchange Rate Expectations,the Forward Exchange Rate Bias and Risk Premia in Target Zones

Expected rates of depreciation within the target zone for the exchange rates of four Nordic countries during 1979–1989 are estimated. Combining these with expected rates of devaluation estimated by Edin and Vredin (1993) we obtain time-series of the overall expected exchange rate change. We can thus construct time-series of foreign exchange risk premia and expectational errors, following which we decompose the forward exchange rate bias into portions attributable to expectational errors and/or risk premia. The conclusion is that time-varying risk premia appear to be the dominant cause of deviations from uncovered interest parity while the role of expectational errors is less clear.     

养老保险基金:问题与出路

利率市场化是我国金融业发展的客观要求 ,但在现实的政治经济社会条件约束下 ,利率市场化面临着较大的金融风险。本文在分析利率市场化的成本和收益的基础上 ,对如何降低我国利率市场化的成本 ,提出了若干对策建议。     

Measuring Structural Unemployment: NAWRU Estimates in the Nordic Countries

The non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment (NAWRU indicator), used by the OECD as a measure of structural unemployment, has risen for the four Nordic countries Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. In this paper we present stable empirical wage equations for the same countries over the period 1964–1994, in sharp contrast to the increased NAWRU estimates. The instability of the NAWRU estimates is an artefact of a misspecified underlying wage equation, and not due to instability in wage setting itself.
JEL classification : E 24; E 31; E 64; J 51